Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 42.395000 49.964686 58.231456 67.895793 78.848342 90.839429 104.923353
2025-01-05 30.547997 40.475059 52.348993 67.449458 85.980225 107.809785 135.286135
2025-01-12 25.701831 37.156876 51.800390 71.567494 97.189880 128.890330 170.636142
2025-01-19 19.569528 30.767050 46.011208 67.754046 97.364150 135.620353 188.014919
2025-01-26 16.960631 28.580723 45.232691 70.049667 105.176632 152.096911 218.294524
2025-02-02 15.537421 27.806068 46.177049 74.586409 116.104592 173.090397 255.439715
2025-02-09 13.772510 26.176146 45.573553 76.667646 123.523887 189.514299 287.043938
2025-02-16 12.134084 24.461726 44.567727 77.920108 129.648361 204.264646 316.848111
2025-02-23 10.507150 22.487531 42.868655 77.840547 133.626102 215.974125 342.705868
2025-03-02 8.888425 20.247966 40.431156 76.272831 135.077717 223.891633 363.256887
2025-03-09 7.712863 18.637255 38.850838 75.897731 138.253728 234.388339 387.878850
2025-03-16 6.203930 16.085459 35.265315 71.729957 134.930934 234.669175 397.050236
2025-03-23 5.572135 15.363869 35.168788 74.010476 143.003578 254.009682 437.658683
2025-03-30 4.689580 13.924919 33.541413 73.437944 146.342103 266.266283 468.316389
2025-04-06 4.410113 13.830361 34.564849 77.848997 158.548829 293.377376 523.444343
2025-04-13 3.452875 11.827731 31.336196 73.759534 155.354207 294.969738 537.862146
2025-04-20 3.135531 11.412944 31.448694 76.221458 164.116959 316.872466 585.977157
2025-04-27 3.010517 11.504513 32.699406 81.084060 177.593856 347.346972 649.288677
2025-05-04 2.730462 11.077864 32.691297 83.313591 186.220526 369.819690 700.117697
2025-05-11 2.433444 10.521496 32.291597 84.654946 193.195494 389.676882 747.245418
2025-05-18 2.104179 9.766544 31.288574 84.569746 197.348046 404.684558 786.645583
2025-05-25 1.753563 8.823865 29.653856 82.890700 198.181787 413.725222 816.070384
2025-06-01 1.503853 8.157334 28.633314 82.488902 201.522418 427.392059 853.927824